As Covid-19 cases cross three million across the globe, a Singapore-based university has predicted the end of the coronavirus pandemic in 131 countries with the help of artificial intelligence (AI).
The study, conducted by University of Technology and Design (SUTD), used data on the basis of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model to predict the key dates of transition during the coronavirus life cycle across the globe.
The model took its data from Our World in Data and code from Milan Batista and applied the SIR Model for Spread of Disease also known as the Differential Equation Model, to predict the end of Covid-19.
The website also stated that the estimates were updated daily with the latest data and the analysis and predictions are only for educational and research purposes.
Through mathematical modeling, the university has predicted that the pandemic is likely to end 97 per cent in the world on May 21 and end 100 percent on December 8, 2020.
However, with the end of COVID-19, there will be major changes in place. People will realise that working in offices or studying in schools aren’t necessary at all. Here are some predictions which are likely to happen after COVID-19.
Online Delivery/Hyperlocal boom: The average duration of the lockdown for a province/city with triple digits cases would be somewhere around 25–60 days. In such a scenario, establishments like restaurants, cafés might no longer be able to afford the rent. Some might shut down altogether but many would switch to a delivery-only model. Even after the curve is flattened for new cases, citizens would think twice before going out for a meal and prefer ordering online or getting a takeaway. This would pave the way for an online delivery dominant world.
Lower Average Age: Every epidemiologist/virologist on Earth knew a flu threat was looming on the human civilisation. The very same set of experts believe it could lead to 50–300 million deaths. A paper found that the fatality rate gradually increases with age. It stood at 0.2 per cent for people aged between 10 and 39. It increased to 3.6 per cent in the 60–69 age bracket before rising to 8 per cent among those aged 70 to 79 and 14.8 per cent among people in their 80s or older. This might bring down the average age in affected countries and trigger a societal change.
A Digitally Powered World: There are already hotels in China with QR code powered elevators that are linked to a MiniApp on Wechat. The floor number has to be entered into the app to avoid any physical contact. Mobile wallet payments may see a surge as many would want to avoid physical currency notes/coins.
A larger population would be comfortable with digital usage in their daily professional lives. The idea of conducting court hearings, Federal cabinet meetings and University lectures would have been a faraway thought but is now suddenly happening. More businesses are likely to continue using video conferencing, e-signing of contracts etc having realised the efficiency.
Higher Hygiene Standards: Wearing masks, carrying sanitiser, washing hands frequently will be seen as normal. Frequent disinfecting members of the household when entering and exiting homes.
Healthcare research funds allocation: The new world would understand the importance of investing in research grants and more funds are expected in both prevention and cure research efforts.
Health Scans at immigration: Globally airports will have tighter immigration procedures with mandatory health scans. It can be equated to the introduction of security checks post 9/11. What it means for travellers from populous nations like India/China is another 15 min in the queue.
Higher flight fares: When normalcy restores, the number of fliers will get back to the previous figures in a few months but a few carriers would’ve filed bankruptcy by then.
Social contact: Social distancing may continue to take place till 2022 even after a vaccine is in use so as to prevent spread. This also means that shops may limit the number of visitors or patrons in shops and venues.
Localism/Distributed Supply Chain: The export dominance of China will see a hit in the coming years. If not for everything but certainly for essential goods like medicines, surgical items etc. Countries might want to keep it within their local borders or consider cheap labour countries like India, Bangladesh, Mexico et al. This could be either due to anti-China sentiments or to decentralise the supply chain, because of the realisation that such an event might happen again, or a combination of both.
WFH: Work-From-Home may become a routine in some companies instead of daily commuting to workplaces when the same work can be done from home at one’s comfort.
EV adoption: Either the dream of an EV world (world of electric vehicles) would be pushed further or drastically nearer. An additional supply might force oil producers to keep the prices lower for a longer period. However, if the status quo continues, chances are that oil dominance will fall together.
Hyperinflation: Due to all the monetary injection in the economy across the world, we are bound to see a hyperinflation period in many countries. Currencies of smaller economies are bound to depreciate/devaluate against USD. Bitcoin might finally act as a hedge in such nations
Healthier Population: More people might start cooking at home realising that hey, cooking isn’t that difficult after all. Health wearables might see a surge in demand as a general consciousness of staying fit for future circumstances. Physical health might improve, mental not so much.